A Comparison of Newer and Traditional Approaches to Diagnosing Vaginal Infections.

Molecular diagnostic testing (eg, polymerase chain reaction [PCR]-based vaginitis testing) is widely used in clinical practice, although vaginitis experts have reservations about its use for vaginitis diagnosis. As with any new technology, cost to the health system is a large concern. Although clinical evaluation of signs and symptoms along with wet mount microscopy is traditionally used for vaginitis diagnosis, it is less accurate compared with molecular diagnostic testing. Here we review the benefits of adopting newer molecular diagnostics into routine gynecologic practice with some guidance from vaginitis experts that favor both traditional and more modern approaches. We argue that instead of trying to resist the oncoming tide of molecular diagnostics, we can embrace them and put them to appropriate use to effect rapid, accurate, and more flexible diagnosis of vaginitis conditions for our patients.

Syphilis Diagnosis After a Chlamydia, Gonorrhea, or HIV Diagnosis Among Reproductive-Aged Women in Baltimore, MD.

BACKGROUND: Syphilis incidence is increasing among reproductive-aged women, and previous sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are a risk factor for subsequent STIs. This study aimed to determine syphilis incidence after a chlamydia, gonorrhea, or HIV diagnosis, and identify characteristics associated with higher syphilis incidence rates among reproductive-aged women in 1 mid-Atlantic city. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of 85,113 chlamydia, gonorrhea, and HIV diagnoses occurring between 2009 and 2021 and among women aged 13 to 50 years was constructed using public health surveillance data. Cumulative incidence curves were estimated to examine time to early syphilis (i.e., primary, secondary, or early latent) diagnosis, and multivariable analyses determined incidence rate ratios by age (<25 vs. ≥25 years) and number of prior STI diagnoses (0 vs. ≥1) during the study period, stratified by STI. RESULTS: There were 85,113 reportable STI diagnoses and 646 syphilis diagnoses in the cohort. Approximately 1 of 150 chlamydia, 1 of 100 gonorrhea, and 1 of 50 HIV diagnoses were followed by a syphilis diagnosis within 5 years. Cumulative incidence of syphilis differed significantly by STI diagnosis ( P < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, syphilis incidence rates were higher among women diagnosed with ≥1 (vs. 0) prior STI regardless of STI type ( P < 0.05) and among women ≥25 (vs. <25) years old diagnosed with gonorrhea ( P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: There were significant differences in syphilis incidence by prior STI type, number of STIs, and age. Our data support targeted screening for syphilis among women with a history of STIs, parwomen with ≥1 prior STI diagnosis, and older women diagnosed with gonorrhea.

Recovery of neuropsychological function following abstinence from alcohol in adults diagnosed with an alcohol use disorder: Systematic review of longitudinal studies.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use disorders (AUD) associate with structural and functional brain differences, including impairments in neuropsychological function; however, reviews (mostly cross-sectional) are inconsistent with regards to recovery of such functions following abstinence. Recovery is important, as these impairments associate with treatment outcomes and quality of life. OBJECTIVE(S): To assess neuropsychological function recovery following abstinence in individuals with a clinical AUD diagnosis. The secondary objective was to assess predictors of neuropsychological recovery in AUD. METHODS: Following the preregistered protocol (PROSPERO: CRD42022308686), APA PsycInfo, EBSCO MEDLINE, CINAHL, and Web of Science Core Collection were searched between 1999-2022. Study reporting follows the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Manual for Evidence Synthesis, study quality was assessed using the JBI Checklist for Cohort Studies. Eligible studies were those with a longitudinal design that assessed neuropsychological recovery following abstinence from alcohol in adults with a clinical diagnosis of AUD. Studies were excluded if participant group was defined by another or co-morbid condition/injury, or by relapse. Recovery was defined as function reaching 'normal' performance. RESULTS: Sixteen studies (AUD n = 783, controls n = 390) were selected for narrative synthesis. Most functions demonstrated recovery within 6-12 months, including sub-domains within attention, executive function, perception, and memory, though basic processing speed and working memory updating/tracking recovered earlier. Additionally, verbal fluency was not impaired at baseline (while verbal function was not assessed compared to normal levels), and concept formation and reasoning recovery was inconsistent. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide evidence that recovery of most functions is possible. While overall robustness of results was good, methodological limitations included lack of control groups, additional methods to self-report to confirm abstinence, description/control for attrition, statistical control of confounds, and of long enough study durations to capture change.

In Support of Breast/Chest Feeding by People with HIV in High-Income Settings.

Given that HIV can be transmitted through breastfeeding, historically, breastfeeding among women with HIV in the United States and other resource rich settings was actively discouraged. Formula feeding was mandated as the only feeding option primarily out of concern for breastmilk transmission of HIV, which occurred in 16-24%1-3 of cases pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) use. In January 2023, the United States' Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) Perinatal Guidelines were updated to support shared decision making for infant feeding choices4. Updated data from clinical trials in low- and middle-income settings suggest that the actual rate of HIV transmission through breastmilk in the context of maternal ART or neonatal post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is 0.3-1%1-3. High income countries are reporting increasing numbers of people with HIV breastfeeding their infants without cases of HIV transmission to date5-10. Here we will present the reasons for fully embracing breast/chestfeeding as a viable and safe infant feeding option for HIV-exposed infants in high-income settings now, while acknowledging unanswered questions and the need to continually craft more nuanced clinical guidance.

Hospital Development of a Hybrid Emergency Department-Inpatient Care Observation Unit.

INTRODUCTION: This project aimed to design and implement an emergency department-managed observation unit that improves inpatient bed and emergency department stretcher capacity, decreases observation patient length of stay, earns high patient satisfaction scores, and generates a positive fiscal impact on the organization. METHODS: This quality improvement project followed a 1-group, pre- and postprogram implementation design. RESULTS: In the first year of operations, 40% of the total observation patients treated in this hospital were managed in the new observation unit. Emergency department observation unit length of stay across all patient complaints was half of the average length of stay for observation patients located on hospital inpatient units. In most cases, the emergency department observation unit was in the top 25 percentile of hospital Press Ganey inpatient satisfaction categories. The hospital estimates a contribution margin of three-quarters of a million dollars in the first year. DISCUSSION: This effective and efficient hybrid observation unit possessed specific aspects of inpatient and emergency department patient care models. Placing providers and nurses at the workstation for faster communication expedited care. Prioritizing all observation patient testing, transportation, phlebotomy, and intravenous (IV) services shortened disposition times. Emergency nurses transitioning to the observation unit were challenged to acquire inpatient care knowledge. Observation unit management struggled to maintain staffing while under an inpatient productivity model managed by the inpatient house supervisor. Reducing patient disposition time required clear communication between observation unit and inpatient staffing managers, between physician consultants and advanced practice nursing providers, and among nurses, patients, and providers. Observation units are 1 solution to decrease observation patient length of stay and improve emergency department capacity.

Structural Racism and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes Through the Lens of the Maternal Microbiome.

Microbiome science offers a glimpse into personalized medicine by characterizing health and disease states according to an individual's microbial signatures. Without a critical examination of the use of race as a variable, microbiome studies may be susceptible to the same pitfalls as other areas of science grounded in racist biology. We will examine the use of race as a biological variable in pregnancy-related microbiome research. Emerging data from studies that investigate the intestinal microbiome in pregnancy suggest strong influence of a poor diet on adverse pregnancy outcomes. Differences in the vaginal microbiome implicated in adverse pregnancy outcomes are frequently attributed to race. We review evidence that links systemic racism to pregnancy health outcome differences with a focus on the vaginal and intestinal microbiomes as well as diet. We also review how structural racism ultimately contributes to inequitable access to healthy food and higher risk environmental exposures among pregnant people of lower socioeconomic status and exacerbates common pregnancy comorbidities.

Infant feeding for people living with HIV in high resource settings: a multi-disciplinary approach with best practices to maximise risk reduction.

Shared decision making for infant feeding in the context of HIV in high-resourced settings is necessary to acknowledge patient autonomy, meet increasing patient requests and address the changing reality of perinatal HIV care. In low-to middle-income countries (LMIC), where the majority of individuals living with HIV reside, persons with HIV are recommended to breastfeed their infants. In the setting of maternal anti-retroviral therapy (ART) use throughout pregnancy, viral suppression and appropriate neonatal post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) use, updated information indicates that the risk of HIV transmission through breastmilk may be between 0.3 and 1%. While not endorsing or recommending breastfeeding, the United States' DHHS perinatal guidelines are similarly pivoting, stating that individuals should "receive patient-centred, evidence-based counselling on infant feeding options." Similar statements appear in the British, Canadian, Swiss, European, and Australasian perinatal guidelines. We assembled a multi-disciplinary group at our institution to develop a structured shared decision-making process and protocol for successful implementation of breastfeeding. We recommend early and frequent counselling about infant feeding options, which should include well known benefits of breastfeeding even in the context of HIV and the individual's medical and psychosocial circumstances, with respect and support for patient's autonomy in choosing their infant feeding option.

Microbiome and Vulvovaginitis.

Vulvovaginitis occurs in mostly reproductive aged women. Recurrent vaginitis affects overall quality of life, with a large financial burden on the patient, family, and health system. This review discusses a clinician's approach to vulvovaginitis with specific attention to the 2021 updated Center for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines. The authors discuss the role of the microbiome in vaginitis and evidence-based approaches for diagnosis and treatment of vaginitis. This review also provides updates on new considerations, diagnosis, management, and treatment of vaginitis. Desquamative inflammatory vaginitis and genitourinary syndrome of menopause are discussed as differential diagnosis of vaginitis symptoms.

Younger, drunk, and fast: Paradoxical rapid reaction time in hazardous drinkers.

BACKGROUND: Research consistently links hazardous alcohol use with reduced cognitive function but is less consistent with regard to processing speed, which underpins many cognitive functions. Using vibrotactile perception to assess cognitive function may have benefits over other sensory stimuli, as this method gives lower variability in reaction time (RT) and shorter latency. AIMS: This study aimed to assess performance on vibrotactile simple and choice RT tasks between hazardous and non-hazardous drinkers. METHODS: Participants (n = 86) completed vibrotactile tasks and alcohol, mood and subjective function (Executive Function Index (EFI)) questionnaires. Multivariate analyses of covariance were performed on average RT scores, and on EFI scores, to investigate function, and a bivariate correlation assessed the relationships between subjective and objective measures. RESULTS: Hazardous drinkers exhibited significantly faster choice RT. With regard to subjective executive function, Strategic Planning and Impulse Control were significantly better in non-hazardous drinkers. Finally, Organisation and Impulse Control both significantly positively correlated with choice and simple RT, indicating that as subjective function improved, RT increased (a decline in performance). CONCLUSIONS: These results are considered in the context of the premature ageing hypothesis, impulsivity and the impact of alcohol use on various neurotransmitter systems. Furthermore, the poorer subjective function in young hazardous drinkers indicates a possible metacognitive deficit, increased effort or issues with vibrotactile perception as a cognitive function assessment in this group.

Breastfeeding Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in North America: A Multisite Study.

BACKGROUND: In North American countries, national guidelines have strongly recommended formula over breastmilk for people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) because of concern for HIV transmission. However, data from resource-limited settings suggest the risk is <1% among virally suppressed people. Information regarding breastfeeding experience in high-resource settings is lacking. METHODS: A retrospective multisite study was performed for individuals with HIV who breastfed during 2014-2022 in the United States (8 sites) and Canada (3 sites). Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. RESULTS: Among the 72 cases reported, most had been diagnosed with HIV and were on antiretroviral therapy prior to the index pregnancy and had undetectable viral loads at delivery. Most commonly reported reasons for choosing to breastfeed were health benefits, community expectations, and parent-child bonding. Median duration of breastfeeding was 24 weeks (range, 1 day to 72 weeks). Regimens for infant prophylaxis and protocols for testing of infants and birthing parents varied widely among institutions. No neonatal transmissions occurred among the 94% of infants for whom results were available ≥6 weeks after weaning. CONCLUSIONS: This study describes the largest cohort to date of people with HIV who breastfed in North America. Findings demonstrate high variability among institutions in policies, infant prophylaxis, and infant and parental testing practices. The study describes challenges in weighing the potential risks of transmission with personal and community factors. Finally, this study highlights the relatively small numbers of patients with HIV who chose to breastfeed at any 1 location, and the need for further multisite studies to identify best care practices.

Satisfaction with opioid prescription and use after minor gynaecologic surgery: a pilot prospective study.

To describe predictors of patient satisfaction with pain control including opioid prescribing practices, patients undergoing minor gynaecologic and urogynaecologic surgeries were included in a prospective cohort study. Satisfaction with postoperative pain control by opioid prescription status was analysed using bivariate analysis and multivariable logistic regression, controlling for potential confounders. Among participants completing both postoperative surveys, 112/141 (79.4%) reported pain control satisfaction by day 1-2 and 118/137 (86.1%) by day 14. While we were underpowered to detect a true difference in satisfaction by opioid prescription, there were no differences in opioid prescription among patients satisfied with pain control [52% vs. 60% (p = .43) among satisfied patients at day 1-2 and 58.5% vs. 37% (p = .08) at day 14]. Significant predictors of pain control satisfaction were postoperative day (POD) 1-2 average pain at rest [aOR 0.72 (95% CI 0.52-0.99), p = .04], rating of shared decision-making [aOR 1.16 (95% CI 1.004-1.34), p = .04], amount of pain relief [aOR 1.28 (95% CI 1.07-1.54), p = .008) and POD 14 shared decision-making rating [aOR 1.45 (95% CI 1.19-1.77), p = .002].Impact StatementWhat is already known on this subject? There are little data published on opioid prescription rates after minor gynaecologic procedures and no formal evidence-based guidance for gynaecologic providers for opioid prescribing. Few publications describe rates of opioid prescription and use following minor gynaecologic procedures. In the setting of a dramatic escalation of opioid misuse in the United States over the last decade, we sought to describe our practice of opioid prescription following minor gynaecologic procedures and answer the question of whether patient satisfaction is affected by opioid prescription, fill and use.What do the results of this study add? Though underpowered to detect our primary outcome, our results suggest that patient satisfaction with pain control may primarily be significantly affected by the patient's subjective assessment of shared decision-making with the gynaecologist.What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? Ultimately, these preliminary findings suggest a larger cohort is needed to answer the question of whether pain control satisfaction is influenced by receipt/fill/use of opioids after minor gynaecologic surgery.

Markers of intestinal immune activation and inflammation are not associated with preterm birth among women with low level HIV viremia.

BACKGROUND: Maternal markers of intestinal immune activation may be used to predict preterm birth (PTB) in pregnant women living with HIV. METHODS: This study used de-identified samples from the International Maternal Pediatric Adolescent AIDS Clinical Trials Group (IMPAACT) Protocol P1025 study. Singleton pregnancies with ≥3 ml plasma available and HIV viral load ≤400 copies/ml within 4 weeks of specimen collection were included. Frequency matching of PTB cases and term birth controls was performed on basis of maternal race, number of available plasma specimens, and timing of plasma sample collection in a 1:1 ratio. Plasma progesterone, 25-hydroxy vitamin D, soluble CD14, intestinal fatty acid binding protein (I-FABP), Lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-binding protein, and inflammatory cytokines (IL-1B, IFN-gamma, IL-6, TNF-alpha) were measured. Generalized mixed linear regression modeling was used to examine the association between PTB and biomarkers, adjusting for covariates and confounders. Data analyses were performed using SAS 9.4 (Cary, NC). RESULTS: We included 104 PTB compared to 104 controls. Third trimester log2 IL-1B was lower among PTB versus term birth controls by univariate analysis (-1.50 ± 2.26 vs. -.24 ± 2.69, p = .01) though this association was no longer significant by regression modeling. In an uncontrolled, exploratory sub-analysis, subjects with prior PTB had increased odds of PTB with higher I-FABP [aOR 2.72, 95% CI 1.18-6.24] and lower IFN-gamma [aOR .23, 95% CI .12-.41] after adjustment for covariates and confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Intestinal immune activation measured by soluble CD14 or intestinal fatty acid binding protein was not associated with preterm birth among pregnant women with low-level HIV viremia.

Women Living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus with Intended and Unintended Pregnancy: Characteristics and Patient Outcomes.

Background: Rates of unintended pregnancy may be higher in women living with human immunodeficiency virus (WLWH) than in the general population, and it is unclear how populations of WLWH with intended and unintended pregnancy differ. We compared baseline characteristics and outcomes between WLWH with intended and unintended pregnancy. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of WLWH enrolled in a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and Pregnancy clinic from 2003 to 2014. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, chi-square test, Student's t-test, one-way analysis of variance, and linear and logistic regression analysis. Two-tailed p-value <0.05 was considered significant. The study was approved by the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine Institutional Review Board. Results: Sixty-nine (27.1%) of 255 women reported an intended pregnancy. Women with intended pregnancy (WWIP) were more likely to be older, White, married, privately insured, and college educated. WWIP were less likely to use tobacco (15.9% vs. 44.2%, p < 0.001), alcohol (2.9% vs. 11.1%, p = 0.041), opiates (0.0% vs. 19.3%, p < 0.001), or cocaine (2.9% vs. 21.0%, p < 0.001) during pregnancy, more likely to disclose their HIV status to the father of the baby by delivery (100.0% vs. 15.8%, p < 0.001), and more likely to receive less effective contraception at delivery (condoms 14.9% vs. 4.8%, p = 0.024; sterilization 11.9% vs. 22.1%, p = 0.028). In multivariate regression analysis, pregnancy intendedness was an important predictor of nondetectable viral load at pregnancy entry but not at delivery. Conclusions: WLWH vary in their baseline characteristics and pregnancy outcomes depending on pregnancy intendedness, highlighting the need to improve pregnancy timing in WLWH and intensify interventions for women with unintended pregnancy.

Severely Restricting Abortion Threatens Equitable Health Outcomes for People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

Equitable access to abortion is a critical component of reproductive care. Women with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the United States are disproportionately Black and will be disproportionately affected by abortion bans following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v Wade. We argue that this decision is directly in conflict with the National HIV/AIDS Strategies and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's goals to eliminate perinatal HIV transmission.

The impact of anxiety on postoperative pain following pelvic reconstructive surgery.

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: Despite the prevalence of anxiety, its impact on postoperative pain remains poorly characterized. The present study was aimed at assessing the impact of preoperative anxiety on postoperative pain in patients undergoing pelvic reconstructive surgery. We hypothesized that greater anxiety would be associated with increased postoperative pain for patients undergoing pelvic reconstructive surgery. METHODS: This was a prospective multi-center observational study in Baltimore between September 2018 and June 2019. The Beck Anxiety Inventory was used to assess preoperative anxiety and the validated Surgical Pain Scale instrument was used to assess pain in the postoperative period. The association between anxiety and postoperative pain was analyzed using multivariate logistic regression, adjusting for relevant confounders. RESULTS: A total of 149 patients undergoing pelvic reconstructive surgery completed preoperative surveys. The median age of the study population was 59. The prevalence of preoperative anxiety (anxiety score > 9) in our study population was 26.8% (95% CI 19.7-34.0%). Women with preoperative anxiety reported higher postoperative pain on days 1-2 (relative odds 1.05, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.10) and day 14 (relative odds 1.53, 95% confidence interval 1.00-2.34). CONCLUSIONS: A large fraction of women undergoing pelvic reconstructive surgery have moderate to severe preoperative anxiety. Women with preoperative anxiety appear to have greater odds of increased postoperative pain. Understanding this association may help surgeons with preoperative counseling and expectations regarding postoperative pain.

Understanding clinical outcome measures reported in HIV pregnancy studies involving antiretroviral-naive and antiretroviral-experienced women.

HIV infection is a clinically significant public health disease and contributes to increased risk of maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. HIV pregnancy studies use outcome measures as metrics to show how people with HIV feel, function, or survive. These endpoints are crucial for tracking the evolution of HIV illness over time, assessing the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and comparing outcomes across studies. Although the need for ideal outcome measures is widely acknowledged, selecting acceptable outcome measures for these HIV pregnancy studies can be challenging. We discuss the many outcome measures that have been implemented over time to assess HIV in pregnancy studies, their benefits, and drawbacks. Finally, we offer suggestions for improving the reporting of outcome measures in HIV in pregnancy studies. Medical professionals can best care for pregnant women living with HIV receiving ART by having a thorough understanding of these outcome metrics.

Recovery of neuropsychological function following abstinence from alcohol in adults diagnosed with an alcohol use disorder: Protocol for a systematic review of longitudinal studies.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use disorders (AUD) associate with structural and functional brain differences, including impairments in neuropsychological functions; however, review level research (largely cross-sectional) is inconsistent with regards to recovery of such functions following abstinence. Such recovery is important, as these impairments associate with treatment outcomes and quality of life. OBJECTIVE(S): To assess neuropsychological function recovery following abstinence in individuals with a clinical AUD diagnosis. The secondary objective is to assess predictors of neuropsychological recovery in AUD. METHODS: Four electronic databases (APA PsycInfo, EBSCO MEDLINE, CINAHL, Web of Science Core Collection) will be searched between 1999-2022, with search strategies adapted for each source. Study reporting will follow the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Manual for Evidence Synthesis, study quality will be assessed using the JBI Checklist for Cohort Studies. Eligible studies are those with a longitudinal design that assessed neuropsychological recovery following abstinence from alcohol in adults with a clinical diagnosis of AUD. Studies will be excluded if participant group is defined by another or co-morbid condition/injury, or by relapse. RESULTS: This is an ongoing review. As of July 2022, the review protocol is registered on PROSPERO (CRD42022308686), searches have been conducted, and screening is in progress. Results are predicted to be complete by October 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Comparing data on neuropsychological recovery from AUD will improve understanding of the impact of alcohol on the brain, and the relationship between AUD recovery and quality of life/treatment outcomes. It may provide information that could one day inform aspects of treatment and aftercare (e.g., options for cognitive training of functions that do not improve on their own).

Optimising the balance of acute and intermediate care capacity for the complex discharge pathway: Computer modelling study during COVID-19 recovery in England.

OBJECTIVES: While there has been significant research on the pressures facing acute hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been less interest in downstream community services which have also been challenged in meeting demand. This study aimed to estimate the theoretical cost-optimal capacity requirement for 'step down' intermediate care services within a major healthcare system in England, at a time when considerable uncertainty remained regarding vaccination uptake and the easing of societal restrictions. METHODS: Demand for intermediate care was projected using an epidemiological model (for COVID-19 demand) and regressing upon public mobility (for non-COVID-19 demand). These were inputted to a computer simulation model of patient flow from acute discharge readiness to bedded and home-based Discharge to Assess (D2A) intermediate care services. Cost-optimal capacity was defined as that which yielded the lowest total cost of intermediate care provision and corresponding acute discharge delays. RESULTS: Increased intermediate care capacity is likely to bring about lower system-level costs, with the additional D2A investment more than offset by substantial reductions in costly acute discharge delays (leading also to improved patient outcome and experience). Results suggest that completely eliminating acute 'bed blocking' is unlikely economical (requiring large amounts of downstream capacity), and that health systems should instead target an appropriate tolerance based upon the specific characteristics of the pathway. CONCLUSIONS: Computer modelling can be a valuable asset for determining optimal capacity allocation along the complex care pathway. With results supporting a Business Case for increased downstream capacity, this study demonstrates how modelling can be applied in practice and provides a blueprint for use alongside the freely-available model code.

Modelling the effect of COVID-19 mass vaccination on acute hospital admissions.

BACKGROUND: Managing high levels of acute COVID-19 bed occupancy can affect the quality of care provided to both affected patients and those requiring other hospital services. Mass vaccination has offered a route to reduce societal restrictions while protecting hospitals from being overwhelmed. Yet, early in the mass vaccination effort, the possible impact on future bed pressures remained subject to considerable uncertainty. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to model the effect of vaccination on projections of acute and intensive care bed demand within a 1 million resident healthcare system located in South West England. METHODS: An age-structured epidemiological model of the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered type was fitted to local data up to the time of the study, in early March 2021. Model parameters and vaccination scenarios were calibrated through a system-wide multidisciplinary working group, comprising public health intelligence specialists, healthcare planners, epidemiologists and academics. Scenarios assumed incremental relaxations to societal restrictions according to the envisaged UK Government timeline, with all restrictions to be removed by 21 June 2021. RESULTS: Achieving 95% vaccine uptake in adults by 31 July 2021 would not avert the third wave in autumn 2021 but would produce a median peak bed requirement ∼6% (IQR: 1-24%) of that experienced during the second wave (January 2021). A 2-month delay in vaccine rollout would lead to significantly higher peak bed occupancy, at 66% (11-146%) of that of the second wave. If only 75% uptake was achieved (the amount typically associated with vaccination campaigns), then the second wave peak for acute and intensive care beds would be exceeded by 4% and 19%, respectively, an amount which would seriously pressure hospital capacity. CONCLUSION: Modelling influenced decision-making among senior managers in setting COVID-19 bed capacity levels, as well as highlighting the importance of public health in promoting high vaccine uptake among the population. Forecast accuracy has since been supported by actual data collected following the analysis, with observed peak bed occupancy falling comfortably within the inter-quartile range of modelled projections.